Clinton faces one problem after another this week

WASHINGTON - A showdown in Kosovo could lead to U.S. militaryaction within days. An impasse on Capitol Hill could prompt agovernment shutdown by the end of the week. The world's topfinancial officials are in Washington looking for credible responsesto the world's economic slump.

And, by the way, the House of Representatives plans to voteThursday on whether to begin an inquiry that could remove PresidentClinton from his office.

Suddenly, a president who long ago grew accustomed to crisis isthis week facing a remarkable convergence of them. This alignment ofproblems, both foreign and domestic, will test anew the degree towhich Clinton's ability to govern has been hampered by personalscandal.This week also highlights a perilous reality for Clinton: Across avariety of fronts, his future will be determined by events anddecisions in which he is not the dominant player."I think you get the sense that things are increasingly out ofcontrol," said Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served as national securityadviser in the Carter administration. "We're in a situation thatcould become quite malignant."Consider:- In the Balkans, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic for monthshas defied warnings to end his brutal suppression of ethnicAlbaniansin Kosovo. Clinton has pledged a U.S.-led NATO military strike ifMilosevic does not yield to the latest ultimatum. But critics onCapitol Hill say the White House seems bereft of long-term solutionsfor a problem that threatens to repeat the Bosnian nightmare.- On the international economic crisis, senior Clinton aidesacknowledge that they, like policy-makers in other capitals, arebeing buffeted by market forces that they cannot fully predict ortame.- On the budget, Republicans are plainly trying to gauge Clinton'spolitical strength as they decide how much they are willing to yieldto his policy priorities. A resolution funding the government runsout on Friday, and Congress has finished work on only four of the 13annual appropriations bills for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1.The plan is to keep the government going by passing an "omnibus"spending measure that wraps together the most contentious spendingbills. But this may test Clinton's mettle. He has pledged to vetoany measure that does not include his demands for educationspending.- And as if this basket of burdens were not full enough, itcontains one more item, the heaviest of all: How to save his futurein office?The House Judiciary Committee set the stage for a historic journeyinto presidential impeachment by deciding to open a formal inquiryinto whether Clinton should be removed from office for concealing anaffair with Monica Lewinsky. It makes him only the third presidentto face a serious threat of being removed from power.After a sober, daylong debate that dwelt on history even as itwrote a new chapter, the committee endorsed an open-endedinvestigation modeled after the Watergate proceedings that forcedPresident Richard M. Nixon from office 24 years ago.All 21 Republicans on the committee voted to launch theimpeachment proceedings, while all 16 Democrats opposed the GOPresolution, underscoring the partisan flavor that has marked thepanel's debate with congressional elections just four weeks fromTuesday.White House press secretary Joseph Lockhart said Clinton isregularly calling members of Congress to express his regrets overtheLewinsky controversy and to enlist help in his battle to avoidimpeachment. But Lockhart declined to estimate how much time Clintonspends on scandal management on a typical day or week."There's no such thing as a typical day or week here," Lockhartsaid. "But he has not lost focus on the issues that he was sent hereto work on, and he continues to work on them."If there is a bright side for Clinton, it is that he has been insimilar circumstances before - and triumphed. This week's showdownsare an echo of those that occurred three years ago, in November1995.Then, Clinton's refusal to yield to GOP budget priorities led to thefirst of two government shutdowns that helped Clinton make his casethat Republicans were too extreme. At the same time, high-wirenegotiations were under way that finally ended with anadministration-brokered peace settlement in Bosnia.Events could break the president's way again. On the budget, ahandful of White House officials Monday expressed confidence thatRepublicans would back down without forcing a shutdown. One saidClinton is in a "win-win" situation - either Republicans accede tohis popular proposals or face the consequences in midterm elections.White House national economic adviser Gene Sperling said Clintonalready has succeeded in setting the terms of the budget debate withhis "save Social Security first" policy that called for not usinganymoney from the budget surplus for new tax cuts or spending until long-term fixes are made in the retirement program.But such boasting cannot obscure the larger picture of Clinton'slegislative weakness. Despite the president's high popularity inpolls, Congress is going to go home this month without passinglegislation reforming rules for health maintenance organizations, orenacting new subsidies to help poor and middle-class families payforchild care, or giving him authority to negotiate trade agreements ona "fast track" basis, or passing legislation against youth smoking.All these were items Clinton had identified as priorities for 1998.Appearing with Democratic congressional leaders on the South Lawnof the White House, Clinton Monday scolded Republicans for theirlegislative lassitude."There is still time for us to put the people of our country aheadof politics, and I hope we'll do it," he said.But the ranks of White House officials with the stature to help awounded president are thinning. White House Chief of Staff ErskineB. Bowles, who has long signaled his desire to leave this year, saidover the weekend that he will return to North Carolina this month,assoon as Congress leaves town. Most White House officials expect hisreplacement will be deputy chief of staff John D. Podesta, who hasextensive Democratic connections but does not have the track recordBowles established in dealing comfortably with the GOP majority.The partisan divide on Capitol Hill raises another factorconstraining Clinton: While hoping to stave off impeachment, he hasfar less flexibility than before to move away from his party onissues when it suits his interest.